India at the Crossroads of Global Trade

In 1991, India broke from decades of protectionism by reducing import tariffs and enacting sweeping market-oriented reforms. A quarter-century later, the very trading system that made that opening possible has begun to fracture. Rising geopolitical rivalry and anti-trade sentiment across advanced economies are redrawing who they trade with, and on what terms. This talk examines how India's early liberalization transformed its trade and the performance of its corporate sector, and what this new era of rising protectionism means for India at this turning point. Can Indian companies capitalize on the U.S.-China rupture? The evidence suggests India has so far only partly seized the moment, a sign that further domestic reforms are needed to capitalize on global disruption into durable growth at home. Drawing on recent research, the talk develops a framework for understanding which kinds of reforms could improve the competitiveness of Indian firms in export markets.